Erik ten Hag's side face a daunting task to try and get back into Europe's elite competition and failure to do so will leave them in a financial mess
Thirteen years ago in early April, Manchester United went to Stamford Bridge to play Chelsea in a Champions League quarter-final tie. On Thursday they head there knowing that victory is essential if they want to retain any hope of qualifying for the competition next season.
These two giants were regulars in the latter stages of the Champions League but have dramatically fallen out of the continental conversation, with Chelsea missing out on all three European competitions this season and United failing spectacularly in their voyage, finishing bottom of their UCL group.
Chelsea are effectively doomed to miss out on European football again completely as they sit 12th in the Premier League but the Red Devils still have a glimmer of hope of making it back into the big time, despite their dismal 1-1 draw at Brentford last time out.
Due to the expansion of the Champions League from next season, a fifth-placed finish could be enough for United to qualify. They currently trail Tottenham in fifth by nine points but can cut that gap to six with victory at Stamford Bridge. Given Spurs' reputation as apparent 'bottlers', United could still catch them and sneak into the Champions League by the back door.
But if this doesn't happen, how big of a mess would the club be in? What will be the true cost if Erik ten Hag's side miss out on the Champions League?
Getty ImagesNo access to a €2.5 billion prize pot
By qualifying for this season's Champions League, United were one of the 32 teams who were given a proportion of €2.1 billion (£1.8bn/$2.3bn) UEFA distributed to clubs participating in the competition.
That prize pot is increasing to approximately €2.5bn (£2.1/$2.7bn) from next season due to the expansion of the competition, which was agreed to stave off the threat of the European Super League. From next campaign 36 teams will compete and an extra 64 games will be played.
The exact amount individual clubs earn under the current format is dictated by their performance in the competition, the size of their country's television market and their 10-year coefficient, calculated according to historic performances.
Last season's winners Manchester City earned €134.9m in prize money (£115m/$145m) while Real Madrid, who were knocked out by Pep Guardiola's side in the semi-finals, earned the second highest amount, €118.8m (£101m/$149m), more than finalists Inter.
Advertisement(C)Getty ImagesColossal contrast to Europa League
Sevilla, meanwhile, earned just €21.8million (£19m/$23m) from winning the Europa League. Thirty teams made more money than Sevilla last season simply by being in the Champions League.
And this season, despite their miserable and brief return to the Champions League, United still stand to make up to €60m (£51m/$64m) from UEFA, nearly double the €32.6m (£27m/$35m) they received for reaching the quarter-finals of last season's Europa League, playing 12 matches in the process.
Under the new format, teams are guaranteed €18.6m (£15m/$20m) just for qualifying, a €3m (£2.5m/$3.2m) increase from this season. Teams in the Europa League will only be guaranteed €4.1m (£3.5m/$4.4m) in the Europa League.
There is also a big difference in money distributed for winning matches. In the Champions League, each group stage victory is worth €2.1m (£1.8m/$2.2m) and there will be eight matches under the Swiss Model, which puts all 36 teams into one league, with four home games and four away games. If you qualify for the knockout phase, either through finishing in the top eight or through the play-off round, you earn €11m (£9.4m/$11.8m).
In the Europa League, a victory is only worth €450,000 (£385k/$485k), while qualification is rewarded with only €1.75m (£1.5m/$1.8m). So, if United were to qualify for the Champions League and win all eight games, they would earn a total of €46.4m (£40m/$50m) in prize money. The equivalent performance in the Europa League would earn them a total of €9.45m (£8m/$11m). So that's a potential difference of €36.95m (£31m/$39m).
Getty Images Lower matchday revenue
It doesn't take a genius to work out that Champions League games are far more attractive to fans than Europa League matches and so missing out on the elite competition means reduced ticket receipts and lower television revenue.
In their last set of accounts, United reported that they had increased broadcast revenue by £52m ($65m) between July and December 2023 compared to the same period in 2022. They also increased matchday revenue by £23.8m ($29m). Both spikes can be put down to their return to the Champions League.
The fact that there is an extra home game in next season's format and a potential play-off round if United were to finish between ninth and 24th in the table means they stand to lose out even more by failing to reach European football's premier club competition.
(C)GettyImagesPay cuts for players
United's accounts will get at least get some respite if they fail to qualify for the Champions League with the players set to eat a 25 percent pay cut. That was the case the last time United failed to reach Europe's top competition so the likes of Bruno Fernandes, Marcus Rashford and Luke Shaw will be bracing themselves for a second pay cut in three years.
Top earner Casemiro will see his weekly wage drop from £350,000 to £262,500 while Rashford will have his earnings fall from an estimated £300,000 to £225,000. Captain Bruno Fernandes' weekly wages will be slashed to £180,000.
Of course, the players will not be struggling to make their mortgage payments, but some may be tempted to move away in a bid to recoup their previous salary, especially if they think that United might not immediately get back into the Champions League the following year.
Paris Saint-Germain's interest in Rashford is no secret and they would be able to practically guarantee him Champions League football every year.